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Bitget Research: Cryptocurrency Market Experiences Significant Rebound, BTC Ecosystem Offers Potential Wealth Creation Opportunities
Aaron & Tommy
2024/04/09
In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.
Overview
The market experienced a significant rebound yesterday, with BTC reaching a high of US$72,880 and ETH also seeing gains. The wealth effect in the market is very noticeable, with the BTC ecosystem containing opportunities for wealth creation. The highlights are as follows:
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Sectors with strong wealth creation effects: Blue-chip sector and TON ecosystem.
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Top searched tokens and topics: MomoAI, TNSR, TON, and GMX.
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Potential airdrop opportunities: Ethena Season 2 and Kiloex.
Data collection time: April 9, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)
1. Market Environment
Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply, with BTC surging by $3000 in a short time, reaching as high as $72,880. The upward momentum is very strong, and it is very likely to continue to break upwards in the near term. If BTC reaches a new high, it could trigger the next wave of rally. However, the market may experience a "false breakout" near the previous high, increasing market volatility. ETH surged by 10%, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate at 0.048 providing substantial support.
This Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor is set to release last month's CPI data, with an expected increase of 3.2%. Since the market's expectation for a June rate hike is essentially 50-50, this CPI report will significantly impact market expectations regarding the June rate decision, thereby affecting the U.S. dollar index and yields on 10-year Treasury notes. The volatility in the crypto market could reach a temporary peak tomorrow. Should the CPI fall short of expectations, BTC could potentially break past its previous high, acting as a catalyst for its next upward movement.
2. Wealth Creation Sectors
2.1 Sector Movements — Blue-chip sector (BTC and ETH)
Main reasons: 1. BTC's technical indicators in the secondary market form an ascending triangle, creating a bullish consensus among traders; 2. Information exchanged at the Hong Kong conference sparked bullish market sentiment.
Gainers: BTC rose to a high of $72,880, while ETH surged $300 to around $3700.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
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U.S. CPI data on Wednesday: The market's expected growth is 3.2%. If it exceeds expectations, the cryptocurrency market might adjust due to rate hike expectations; otherwise, the market might continue to rally, with BTC potentially reaching new highs. The probability of increased market volatility is high.
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Liquidation situation: In the past 24 hours, $180 million in futures trades were liquidated, including $120 million in short positions. If market volatility increases, liquidations will also increase, creating temporary unilateral risks and trading opportunities. Effective risk management is necessary in the next two trading days to avoid liquidation.
2.2 Sector Movements — TON ecosystem (TON and FISH)
Main reasons: 1. The TON Foundation announced a $5 million incentive program, benefiting the ecosystem; 2. Over the past 7 days, TON network's active addresses exceeded 900,000, with a 39.4% increase from the previous week, indicating a continuous increase in active users.
Gainers: TON and FISH saw significant increases both in trading volume and price, with their token prices rising 20.54% and 38.41% respectively within 24 hours.
Factors affecting future market conditions:
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Operation of the TON Foundation: The TON ecosystem is a relatively centralized community, with its token distribution and support for the ecosystem mainly influenced by the TON Foundation. It is important to keep an eye on the operation of the TON Foundation. If there are favorable events, it could be a good investment opportunity.
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Narrative surrounding the ecosystem projects: TON ecosystem projects are in the early stages, and the narrative surrounding these projects significantly impacts the secondary market. Generally, when TON rises, the ecosystem assets will rise higher than TON itself. If you miss the rise of TON, it is advisable to timely invest in projects within the TON ecosystem.
2.3 Sectors to Focus on Next — BTC ecosystem
Main reason: On the 15th of this month, BTC will undergo the Nakamoto Upgrade, and with the BTC halving approaching, the BTC ecosystem is set to attract significant capital and attention.
Specific tokens:
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T: The Nakamoto Upgrade includes the Threshold signature upgrade technology. Recently, Threshold announced the launch of thUSD, entering the BTC ecosystem's DeFi space.
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CKB: The recently popular RGB++ protocol it developed is part of the BTC ecosystem's asset issuance protocols, contributing positively to the ecosystem's wealth effect.
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STX: Stacks' ecosystem development has been solid, and the overall segment TVL continues to reach new heights. The network's performance will significantly improve after the Nakamoto Upgrade. The project is a solid BTC L2 target to buy the dip in the near future.
3. Top Searches
3.1 Popular DApps
MomoAI:
A Telegram gaming product based on the Solana ecosystem, which won the global hackathon championship consecutively in 2021 and 2022. MomoAI's investor list includes renowned venture capital firms such as Magnus, Maezawa Yusaku, SL2, and MH. Yesterday, MomoAI's unique active wallets number rose to over 60k, ranking third in the entire Solana ecosystem, just behind Jupiter and Raydium. As a project spanning the Solana and TON ecosystems, investors might consider exploring and engaging with the product.
3.2 X (former Twitter)
Tensor (TNSR):
A renowned NFT marketplace in the Solana ecosystem, Tensor, opened for trading and airdrop claims yesterday, listing on several leading exchanges with an initial airdrop ratio of 12.5%. Before the TGE, TNSR's pre-market trading price reached $3. After the TGE, the price fell from around $2.5 to $1.7, below market expectations, possibly due to a large airdrop amount and selling pressure. With strong product capabilities, its token price might perform modestly after launch, like BLUR, but is likely to increase again and break through the TGE price.
3.3 Google Search (global and regional)
TON:
Yesterday, Steve Yun, Chairman of the TON Foundation, delivered a keynote speech "TON — the Web3 in Telegram & Incentive Program," mentioning the distribution of $150 million in ecosystem incentives from April to June. The price of TON token broke through $6.5, reaching a new historical high. Moving forward, the projects within the TON ecosystem worth investors' attention include the IDO platform TonUP (token: UP) and the leading memecoin in the ecosystem, FISH.
GMX:
Yesterday, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes transferred all his GMX holdings (237,000 tokens, worth $9.78 million) to a newly created address, which then transferred 41,000 GMX ($1.68 million) to three centralized exchanges. This new address received gas from Wintermute, indicating the GMX might be for sale through Wintermute or selling through the OTC method. Investors should closely monitor GMX's on-chain movements and manage risks appropriately.
4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities
Ethena Season 2
A Delta-neutral stablecoin protocol based on the ETH, Ethena was invested in by Dragonfly, Binance Labs, and more. The first season's generous airdrop was well-received, with the token ENA doubling in price within a week after launch.
Ethena has started its Season 2 campaign on April 2, replacing "Shards" with "Sats" to align with adding BTC as a supported asset, which will last for five months. Users can deposit USDe to earn Sats, with increased rewards for early users in the Season 2. Users from the first season will receive a 20% increase in Sats earned in the Season 2.
Participation methods (multiple options, one example given): 1. Convert USDT to USDe to earn credits; 2. Deposit USDe into Zircuit to earn additional Zicuit credits; 3) Stake a certain amount of ENA to earn additional credits.
Kiloex
A derivatives DEX invested by Binance Labs, Foresight Ventures, 7upDAO, currently supporting opBNB, Manta, and BNB chains. Credits can be earned through trading derivatives, depositing USDT and converting to kUSDT, and depositing STONE, among other methods.
Participation methods: 1. Trade on the derivatives market, where both long and short positions can be opened for the same cryptocurrency to prevent trading losses, earning 35 credits for every $1000 traded; 2. It is advised to choose opBNB or Manta chains for trading due to lower fees compared to the BNB chain; 3. When it comes to earning credits in the Earn product, it is important to note that kUSD comes at a premium. If kUSD falls, there will be a loss on redemption, so whether to participate in the Earn product should be carefully considered.
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