Bitcoin price fails $38.5K breakout as US GDP fuels Fed hard landing woes
Bitcoin ( BTC ) shrank back from resistance after the Nov. 29 Wall Street open as United States GDP figures beat expectations.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
GDP sets tone for macro-sensitive crypto
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed a familiar BTC price retracement on short timeframes.
Bitcoin bulls had managed to propel the market above $38,000 the day prior, only to flip flop around that level before ultimately dropping as U.S. macro data hit.
This showed Q3 GDP accelerating beyond anticipated levels, coming in at 5.2% versus 4.9%, respectively.
This renewed concerns over how the Federal Reserve might handle policy ahead of an interest rates decision in mid-December.
“5.2% is the final reading, it will mark the highest GDP growth since Q4 2022,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter.)
“Can the Fed achieve a soft landing?”
U.S. GDP % change chart (screenshot). Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Kobeissi referenced words from Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, who the day prior had gone on record to predict a Fed rate pivot as soon as Q1, 2024.
“Yesterday, Bill Ackman bet on a hard landing with rate cuts beginning in Q1. Currently, futures don't see rate cuts beginning until June 2024,” it continued.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed marginally increasing bets on a further hike in December following the GDP release, with further key data due on Nov. 30. The odds of a hike stood at 4.2% at the time of writing versus 0.5% previously.
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group
Analyst: Bitcoin is a buy below $35,000
Bitcoin meanwhile continued acting in a familiar style from recent days.
Related: ‘Buy the rumor, sell the news’ — Bitcoin ETF may spark TradFi sell-off
Bulls still failed to crack a key resistance zone beginning at $38,500, despite some being confident that an assault on $40,000 would ultimately result.
“No HH or breakout confirmation yet, eyeing a sweep of $37.3K area HL setup for the HH,” popular trader Skew told X subscribers, referring to a “higher high” being required.
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested that a period of flatter BTC price performance could now enter before a fresh bout of upside volatility.
“Price took out some liquidity above and below,” he commented about the day’s events.
“Would not surprise me to see some more sideways chop for both sides to build up more positions before the next bigger move.”
BTCUSDT">BTC/USDT liquidity map for Binance. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
An accompanying chart showed liquidity for the BTC/USDT pair on largest global exchange Binance.
Eyeing potential downside opportunities, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MN Trading, flagged a range between $33,000 and $35,000 — already a popular zone based on liquidity.
"Markets are consolidating. Giving opportunities, still no breakout of Bitcoin above $38K," his latest X analysis read.
"If we continue to make higher lows, higher highs, a breakout seems to be happening soon. Structure lost? Buying at $33-35K."
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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